2009 Oscar Predictions

As tired as this is, what self-respecting film geek wouldn't offer their Oscar predictions?

My predictions:

• Best Picture: Slumdog Millionare
• Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Actor: Prop 8 backlash gives this award to Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke
• Best Actress: Kate Winslet
  
• Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger. That's a gimme.
• Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
  

I didn't originally prognosticate the nominees for these categories, but the winners seem so straightforward, and I may need the bonus points when some of my major category predictions fall short.

• Best Animated feature: Wall*E
• Best Documentary: Man on Wire
• Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  

Last year I was 75% accurate. The actress categories killed me. I predict that if I do worse again, it will be because of those categories again. I think that I can do better this year.